Najee Harris Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-1800).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Najee Harris's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 78.5% to 91.6%.
Najee Harris grades out in the 92nd percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.19 per game.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a less important option in his offense's air attack near the goal line this week (13.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).
Najee Harris has posted a measly -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris's 17.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 22.4.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.