Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 21, 2025 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chargers as the 9th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 41.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 11th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically prompt better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Najee Harris to be a less important option in his offense's run game this week (25.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (48.3% in games he has played).

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