Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 15.6 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game this week (64.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (77.1% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles profile as the 5th-best group of DTs in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

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