Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to total 14.1 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 36.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been much less involved in his offense's run game this season (60.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (78.8%).
The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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