Mitchell Trubisky Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Mitchell Trubisky

NFL · Player Props

Mitchell Trubisky

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Mitchell Trubisky Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+437/-999).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -875 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -999.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mitchell Trubisky to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (7.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
Mitchell Trubisky has run for 0.14 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in football among QBs (77th percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 40.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Opposing squads have run for the least TDs in the NFL (0.50 per game) against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season.

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