Miles Sanders Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Miles Sanders

NFL · Player Props

Miles Sanders

RB · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Miles Sanders Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to accrue 3.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Miles Sanders has been among the bottom pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 6.0 yards per game while checking in at the 25th percentile among running backs.
Miles Sanders has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among RBs, averaging just 3.52 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 25th percentile.

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