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Mike Williams

Mike Williams Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Mike Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.

New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.

The leading projections forecast Mike Williams to be a more important option in his team's passing attack this week (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).

Mike Williams is positioned as one of the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in an excellent 72.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 83rd percentile among WRs.

Since the start of last season, the poor Broncos pass defense has yielded a colossal 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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