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Mike Williams

Mike Williams Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Mike Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New York Jets.

The Jets offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Mike Williams has been one of the most efficient receivers in the league, averaging an excellent 9.52 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs.

This year, the weak Patriots pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 3-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Mike Williams's 7.7% Target Share this season represents a noteable regression in his passing offense utilization over last season's 21.4% rate.

Mike Williams's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 71.0% to 61.2%.

Mike Williams's 2.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies an impressive drop-off in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 5.7% mark.

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