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Mike Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).With an impressive 10.0 adjusted yards per target (81st percentile) this year, Mike Williams rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.This year, the anemic Browns defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a massive 5.46 YAC.When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Cleveland's group of CBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 44.1% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.Mike Williams has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass game this season (6.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (21.4%).
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