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Mike Williams

Mike Williams Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets

Mike Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's game.

The model projects the Jets to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The New York Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football last year, which should lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing more favorable conditions in this week's contest.

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.

Mike Williams ranks in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers last year with a whopping 31.0% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are expected by the projections to run just 63.0 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.

Our trusted projections expect Mike Williams to be much less involved in his team's pass attack this week (10.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (21.4% in games he has played).

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the worst in football last year.

Last year, the daunting 49ers defense has conceded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wideouts: a puny 7.5 yards.

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