Mike Williams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mike Williams

NFL · Player Props

Mike Williams

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Williams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+157/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Mike Williams has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 19.0% this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Williams has notched significantly more air yards this season (102.0 per game) than he did last season (91.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.6%) vs. wideouts this year (63.6%).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has given up the 9th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.67 per game this year.

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