Mike Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Mike Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Mike Thomas

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Nov 1, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Mike Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 67.3% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Thomas to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.8% in games he has played).
Mike Thomas has put up far more air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
Mike Thomas has been among the worst wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 9.0 yards per game while grading out in the 11th percentile among wide receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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