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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+660/-820).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -630 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -820.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Bengals being a big -10-point underdog in this game.

The projections expect the Bengals as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.

The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the most receiving TDs in football to TEs: 0.75 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are anticipated by the model to run just 61.5 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bengals this year (just 48.2 per game on average).

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Detroit Lions, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.8 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (11.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (21.4% in games he has played).

After averaging 38.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Gesicki has produced significantly less this season, now pacing 24.0 per game.

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