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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+520/-530).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +620 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +520.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals will be rolling out backup QB Jake Browning in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Bengals are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack near the end zone in this contest (13.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (25.0% in games he has played).

In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season.

Mike Gesicki's 53.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a noteable diminishment in his receiving ability over last year's 80.7% rate.

This year, Mike Gesicki has not caught any receiving TDs this year.

Since the start of last season, the fierce Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a paltry 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.

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