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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Mike Gesicki Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-375).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -375.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 67.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
  • Mike Gesicki has notched a staggering 36.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.
  • Mike Gesicki's 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 76th percentile for TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Mike Gesicki's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 80.7% to 66.9%.
  • This year, the feeble Arizona Cardinals run defense has conceded a whopping 1.07 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 9th-highest rate in the NFL.

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