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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Mike Gesicki Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-260).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -255 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -260.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 65.8% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (64.8% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bengals offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.24 seconds per snap.
  • The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Mike Gesicki's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 29.6.
  • The Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
  • Mike Gesicki's 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents an impressive decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 80.7% figure.
  • This year, the strong Ravens defense has allowed a mere 0.23 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 3rd-best rate in the league.
  • As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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