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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Mike Gesicki Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-375).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -485 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -375.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 65.5% red zone pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 129.7 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 7th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Bengals this year (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
  • After accumulating 38.0 air yards per game last season, Mike Gesicki has seen a big downtick this season, now sitting at 29.0 per game.
  • Mike Gesicki's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 29.6.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
  • Mike Gesicki's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 80.7% to 55.1%.

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