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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals may throw the ball less this week (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Joe Flacco.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Bengals being an enormous -14-point underdog in this week's game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 68.5% of their opportunities: the highest rate on the slate this week.

The Green Bay Packers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (42.0 per game) this year.

This year, the poor Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded a whopping 83.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 10th-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Bengals to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Bengals have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 48.8 plays per game.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.

Mike Gesicki's 24.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 29.6.

In regards to pass protection (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.

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