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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -195 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may drop.

The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (34.2 per game) since the start of last season.

Mike Gesicki's 29.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 80th percentile for tight ends.

With an excellent 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Mike Gesicki rates as one of the top TE receiving threats in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Bengals offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's unit has been fantastic since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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