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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-111/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 67.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The leading projections forecast Mike Gesicki to garner 4.9 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
  • Mike Gesicki's 24.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 76th percentile for TEs.
  • As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Arizona's group of safeties has been very bad this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Mike Gesicki's 2.3 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a remarkable drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 4.1 mark.
  • Mike Gesicki's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 80.7% to 66.9%.

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