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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Mike Gesicki Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-117/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -126.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • This year, the poor Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up a massive 78.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.
  • The Miami defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are predicted by the projection model to call just 61.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • Mike Gesicki's 23.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 29.6.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bengals ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.

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