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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
  • In regards to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the lofty 84th percentile among TEs this year, averaging a superb 36.0 per game.
  • The Cleveland Browns pass defense has displayed poor efficiency vs. tight ends this year, yielding 7.93 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Bengals being a massive -8.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
  • Mike Gesicki's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 29.6.
  • Mike Gesicki has totaled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
  • Mike Gesicki's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 80.7% to 68.3%.

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