Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to total 3.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 67.2% to 85.3%.
Mike Gesicki's pass-catching efficiency has been refined this year, averaging 10.89 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.85 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.
Mike Gesicki has gone out for fewer passes this year (59.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
Mike Gesicki has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (31.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).

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