Mike Gesicki Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+318/-585).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -552 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -585.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Gesicki's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 75.1%.
Mike Gesicki grades out in the 96th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (14.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (22.9% in games he has played).