Mike Gesicki Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Mike Gesicki

NFL · Player Props

Mike Gesicki

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-550).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Mike Gesicki's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 83.7%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (85.3%) versus TEs this year (85.3%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.56 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Mike Gesicki has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
Mike Gesicki's 15.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 42.4.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

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