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Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans

Mike Gesicki Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-407).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -357 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -407.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Mike Gesicki's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 72.9%.

Mike Gesicki grades out in the 93rd percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.

The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (11.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (19.6% in games he has played).

More Mike Gesicki Player Props

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