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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Mike Evans Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+123/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +166 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +123.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (58.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a mere 55.4 per game on average).
  • Mike Evans has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 24.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 87th percentile among WRs.
  • Mike Evans has put up a staggering 104.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Mike Evans places in the 98th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 70.6 mark since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Buccaneers are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
  • Mike Evans's 54.0% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a material decrease in his receiving proficiency over last year's 68.5% mark.

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