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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Mike Evans Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -176 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Mike Evans has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 27.6% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • Mike Evans has accumulated many more air yards this season (114.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).
  • Mike Evans's 65.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 93rd percentile for wide receivers.
  • This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins defense has yielded a massive 75.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league.
  • The Dolphins defense has yielded the 7th-most TDs through the air in football to WRs: 1.00 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
  • The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 31.5 per game) this year.
  • Mike Evans's 49.6% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a remarkable regression in his receiving talent over last season's 68.5% rate.

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