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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Mike Evans Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-158/+144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +144.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (61.6% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
  • The predictive model expects Mike Evans to notch 9.1 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
  • Mike Evans's 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 98th percentile for WRs.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Since the start of last season, the stout Texans defense has given up a puny 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the best rate in the NFL.

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