Mike Evans Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 28, 2025 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, Mike Evans is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
Mike Evans has accumulated many more air yards this season (114.0 per game) than he did last season (99.0 per game).
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.5%).

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dolphins, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 31.5 per game) this year.
Mike Evans has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (69.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (83.3%).

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