Mike Evans Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mike Evans

NFL · Player Props

Mike Evans

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+103/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +131 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Mike Evans has notched a colossal 99.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Mike Evans's 50.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 80th percentile for WRs.
Mike Evans's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.3% to 77.7%.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Evans to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (24.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks project as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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