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Mike Evans

Mike Evans Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Mike Evans Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-250).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.

Mike Evans has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.4% this year, which places him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.

Mike Evans has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (109.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Mike Evans's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.9% to 62.3%.

The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) to wideouts this year (64.3%).

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 2nd-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 0.46 per game this year.

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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