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Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Michael Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -176 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -205.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cardinals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.8% red zone pass rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 135.3 total plays called: the most out of all the games this week.
  • The 2nd-most plays in football have been run by the Cardinals this year (a massive 61.3 per game on average).
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and reduced run volume.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
  • The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • Michael Wilson's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 67.0% to 63.6%.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles rank as the worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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