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Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Michael Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+225/-285).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -290 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -285.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • At a -4-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 62.4% of their downs: the 4th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (61.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cardinals.
  • At the moment, the 8th-fastest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Arizona Cardinals.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • Michael Wilson ranks in the 24th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a measly 0.08 per game.
  • This year, the daunting Buccaneers defense has surrendered a meager 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense has conceded a massive 1.09 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 8th-biggest rate in the league.
  • The Buccaneers safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

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