Michael Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Michael Wilson

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) since they be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are huge underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Michael Wilson profiles as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in an impressive 78.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
With a fantastic 12.6 adjusted yards per target (95th percentile) this year, Michael Wilson places as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (55.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to call just 62.9 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board.
This year, the strong Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a puny 3.6 YAC.