Michael Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Thomas to accumulate 9.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.