Michael Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Michael Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Michael Thomas

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Michael Thomas to earn 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Thomas has notched a whopping 76.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

The Saints O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Michael Thomas has been among the weakest WRs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 1.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 16th percentile.
The New England Patriots linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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