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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Michael Pittman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-188).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +186.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.
  • The Steelers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.7 per game) this year.
  • The model projects Michael Pittman to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the goal line this week (22.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.6% in games he has played).
  • Michael Pittman rates in the 78th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 52.2 mark this year.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Right now, the 3rd-most run-focused team in football near the end zone (49.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Colts.
  • The Colts have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.2 plays per game.
  • Michael Pittman has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
  • The Pittsburgh defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst DT corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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