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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Michael Pittman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +146 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • With a top-tier 18.5% Red Zone Target Share (77th percentile) this year, Michael Pittman rates among the WRs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.
  • Michael Pittman has been in the 76th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 50.1 figure this year.
  • The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Michael Pittman's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 63.8% to 74.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is implied by the Colts being an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Colts to be the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.2% red zone run rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a measly 54.1 per game on average).

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