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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Michael Pittman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +192 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +178.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.
  • While Michael Pittman has earned 14.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Indianapolis's passing attack near the goal line in this contest at 23.3%.
  • Michael Pittman's 49.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 75th percentile for WRs.
  • The Indianapolis offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Michael Pittman's 73.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a noteable growth in his receiving prowess over last season's 63.8% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 3rd-most run-oriented team in the NFL in the red zone (50.5% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Colts.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 126.9 offensive plays run: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Michael Pittman has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest rate in the league vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (64.1% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Chargers defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.33 per game this year.

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