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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Rams vs Indianapolis Colts

Michael Pittman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-335).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -335.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may slide.

While Michael Pittman has earned 15.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Indianapolis's pass game near the end zone in this game at 23.2%.

Michael Pittman has accrued a whopping 67.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile when it comes to WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Colts to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 50.5% red zone run rate.

The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (61.0%).

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