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Michael Pittman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Michael Pittman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-315).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -325 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -315.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts may lean on the pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Philip Rivers.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -4-point underdog this week.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.8% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in the league (40.3 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone run rate.

The Colts have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.8 plays per game.

After totaling 72.0 air yards per game last season, Michael Pittman has seen a big downtick this season, now pacing 59.0 per game.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.7% Adjusted Completion%).

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's group of LBs has been excellent this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

More Michael Pittman Player Props

Michael Pittman TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 17

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Michael Pittman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17