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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Michael Pittman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-405).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +350 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +320.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
  • While Michael Pittman has accounted for 15.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of Indianapolis's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest at 20.3%.
  • Michael Pittman ranks in the 77th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 52.4 mark this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 10th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a measly 54.9 per game on average).
  • Michael Pittman has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).

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