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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Michael Pittman Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-188).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -186 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -188.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Colts to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • While Michael Pittman has received 12.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Indianapolis's pass game near the end zone in this week's contest at 21.1%.
  • Michael Pittman has posted a whopping 69.0 air yards per game this year: 77th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Michael Pittman has been in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 54.0 mark this year.
  • The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Colts are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.3% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 27.4 per game) this year.
  • This year, the daunting Falcons defense has given up a paltry 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-smallest rate in football.

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