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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+113/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.

With a high 89.8% Route Participation Rate (85th percentile) last year, Michael Pittman ranks as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.

In this contest, Michael Pittman is expected by the model to slot into the 82nd percentile among wideouts with 7.0 targets.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year.

Michael Pittman ranks as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL last year, averaging a stellar 4.2 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather this week.

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