Michael Pittman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+122/-163).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.2% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accumulate 8.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Michael Pittman has been among the leading WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
Michael Pittman has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a stellar 70.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 76th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts rank as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 60.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.