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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-138/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -138.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.

With a high 89.8% Route Participation Rate (85th percentile) last year, Michael Pittman ranks as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.

In this contest, Michael Pittman is expected by the model to slot into the 82nd percentile among wideouts with 7.0 targets.

Michael Pittman has accumulated a massive 72.0 air yards per game last year: 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.

When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather this week.

Michael Pittman is positioned as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a lowly 7.74 adjusted yards-per-target last year while grading out in the 23rd percentile when it comes to WRs

Last year, the strong Dolphins defense has conceded a puny 128.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-best in the NFL.

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