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Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+161/-229).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -229.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
  • The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.2 plays per game.
  • Michael Pittman has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Michael Pittman has accumulated a whopping 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among wide receivers.
  • Michael Pittman's 54.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 83rd percentile for wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (59.9%) to wide receivers this year (59.9%).
  • The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the least passing TDs in the league to wideouts: 0.25 per game this year.
  • The Denver Broncos cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
  • The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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