Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Michael Pittman

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:50 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+161/-229).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -229.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.2 plays per game.
Michael Pittman has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman has accumulated a whopping 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman's 54.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 83rd percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.33 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (59.9%) to wide receivers this year (59.9%).
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the least passing TDs in the league to wideouts: 0.25 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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