Michael Pittman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Michael Pittman

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 17, 2022 5:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Pittman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+158/-222).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +161 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Michael Pittman has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.4% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman has put up a colossal 77.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Michael Pittman's 59.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 90th percentile for wideouts.
Michael Pittman grades out in the 88th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.39 per game.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
Michael Pittman's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.4% to 67.4%.