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Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Las Vegas Raiders vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Michael Mayer Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+290/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -275 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 61.8% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in this setting has been the Raiders.
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
  • The projections expect Michael Mayer to be a more important option in his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (17.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.1% in games he has played).
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • Michael Mayer's 100.0% Adjusted Catch% this season represents an impressive improvement in his receiving prowess over last season's 65.1% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Raiders, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.5 total plays run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Michael Mayer's 10.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 16.6.
  • With an atrocious ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Michael Mayer rates among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to tight ends this year.
  • The Titans defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest receiving touchdowns in the league to TEs: 0.20 per game this year.

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